Page 227 - 6484

horrible outcome before it happened by identifying project risks proactively—before
your project derails? Research suggests that the simple exercise of imagining what
could go wrong with a given decision can increase your ability to identify reasons for
[1]
future successes or failures by 30%. A “premortem” is a way to imagine and to
avoid what might go wrong before spending a cent or having to change course along
[2]
the way.
Gary Klein, an expert on decision making in fast-paced, uncertain, complex,
and critical environments, recommends that decision makers follow this six-step
premortem process to increase their chances of success.
1. A planning team comes up with an outline of a plan, such as the
launching of a new product.
2. Either the existing group or a unique group is then told to imagine
looking into a crystal ball and seeing that the new product failed miserably. They
then write down all the reasons they can imagine that might have led to this
failure.
3. Each team member shares items from their list until all the potential
problems have been identified.
4. The list is reviewed for additional ideas.
5. The issues are sorted into categories in the search for themes.
6. The plan should then be revised to correct the flaws and avoid these
potential problems.
The premortem technique allows groups to truly delve into “what if” scenarios.
For example, in a premortem session at a Fortune 50 company, an executive
imagined that a potential billion-dollar environmental sustainability project might fail
because the CEO had retired.
KEY TAKEAWAY
There are a number of ways to learn about decision making that can help
make you more effective. If the decision is important, conduct a premortem to
anticipate what might go wrong. When a decision is going to involve others, be
proactive in getting them to buy in before the decision is made. Individuals and
groups can suffer from decision-making traps and process losses.
Understanding that you can spot and avoid these traps is important in helping to
make you a more effective manager.
EXERCISES
1. How might you use the premortem technique to be more effective
within groups at school or work?
2. Imagine that your good friend is starting a new job next week as a
manager. What recommendations would you give your friend to be successful
with decision making at work?

227