Page 113 - 6685
P. 113

Years            Accumulated oil       Accumulated liquid
                              production, ths. tons   production, ths. tons


                  Prediction for extracting characteristics repression carried
          out  as  follows.  Pick  formula  by  which  we  carry  out  forecasting
          (this  is  a  formula  in  which  the  highest  correlation  coefficient  in
          absolute  value).  Determine  the  amount  of  extracted  liquids
          annually in recent years (for example, ten). Determine the average
          fluid  production  over  the  years.  Then  add  the  final  production
          accumulated  fluid  (produced  last  year)  and  the  average  fluid
          production in the coming years. And according to the established
          formula determines the estimated accumulated oil.
                     In  determining  the  accumulated  oil  and  liquids  can  be
          found accumulated water production, years production of oil, fluid
          and water, and the water cut to determine the growth of production
          for years.
                     Thus,  forecasting  production    is  carried  out  in  three
          stages:
               1) pre-processing statistical series;
               2) the choice of form curve that describes the change in flow
          rate over time;
               3) the calculation of the unknown coefficients a and b in the
          equation of the curve and the actual prediction.















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