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Years Accumulated oil Accumulated liquid
production, ths. tons production, ths. tons
Prediction for extracting characteristics repression carried
out as follows. Pick formula by which we carry out forecasting
(this is a formula in which the highest correlation coefficient in
absolute value). Determine the amount of extracted liquids
annually in recent years (for example, ten). Determine the average
fluid production over the years. Then add the final production
accumulated fluid (produced last year) and the average fluid
production in the coming years. And according to the established
formula determines the estimated accumulated oil.
In determining the accumulated oil and liquids can be
found accumulated water production, years production of oil, fluid
and water, and the water cut to determine the growth of production
for years.
Thus, forecasting production is carried out in three
stages:
1) pre-processing statistical series;
2) the choice of form curve that describes the change in flow
rate over time;
3) the calculation of the unknown coefficients a and b in the
equation of the curve and the actual prediction.
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