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§7 FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS

Technological indicators of development at the stage of
design determine the results of hydrodynamic calculations. To
obtain these results need to have a large number of factors (the oil
drives, parameters of the reservoir, parameters of the fluids,
operating conditions of wells, etc.). Accurate knowledge of these
data, especially in the early development unlikely. Therefore, to do
the forecasting.
Forecasting – it is a prediction installation of further
development, i.e. the course of the process of development in the
future. There are forecasting oil production worked well-day and
forecasting oil production under characteristics water-oil
displacement.

7.1 Forecasting oil production worked well-day

Forecasting oil production worked well-day – it is
forecasting oil production using the results of previous
development. It is performed in the following order.
The study evidence of oil set basic patterns in the changes
of oil in recent years. The dynamics of oil production in time trace
using charting. In constructing graphs on the vertical axis – oil
production, and the horizontal axis - time. Since the operation field
is constantly changing a number of wells, the construction
schedules when oil production is set to worked well-day. After
plotting selected analytical expression curve of production over
time. With regard to the prediction of oil wells worked on a day
widely used in oilfield practice was the formula:
q ( t ) a t   b , (7.1)
oil
where a, b - coefficients are determined using actual processing
results.

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