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theoretical formula corresponds to the actual flow rate change over
time.
For downward curves correlation coefficient is (0 - -1),
for upward curves - (0 - +1).
If r = 1, the correlation is converted to exact a relationship
and if r = 0, the correlation between the studied parameters do not
exist. It is believed that by convergence r = 0,5 results are
satisfactory, with r = 0,7 - good for r > 0,7 - excellent.
From the formula (7.3) that the larger n, the greater the
correlation coefficient.
To carry out the forecast for the worked well-day can be
no more than 1/3 of the years under consideration (years of
development).

7.2 Forecasting oil production under characteristics
water-oil displacement

Characteristic water-oil displacement is called the
relationship between the accumulated oil production and
accumulated fluid production. Characteristics displacement
reflects the actual process of extracting oil from the depths and the
associated flooding dynamics of production or development mode
heterogeneity of strata displacement of oil by water. Displacement
characteristics allow determining the efficiency of extraction of oil
in the flooding. In practice, the displacement characteristics are
used to assess the effectiveness of measures designed to improve
the system design. Displacement characteristics can be divided
into two types: integral and differential.
There are many different characteristics water-oil
displacement:
Q flQ oil=a+bQ w; (7.6)

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