Page 67 - 4660
P. 67

Properties of joint distributions


                          3
               Now E(X ) is given by
                                             1                                     1313
                                          3
                                    3
                                                    3
                                                                   3
                                                                           3
                                                         3
                                                              3
                               E(X ) = 1 · p + (2 + 3 + 4 + 5 )p + 6 · 2p =             p = 101,
                                             2                                       2
               and the covariance of X and Y is given by
                                                                53    253    3660
                                            Cov[X, Y ] = 101 −      ×      =      .
                                                                13     13     169
               The correlation is defined by Corr[X, Y ] = Cov[X, Y ]/σ X σ Y . The standard deviation of Y may
                                                                                     2
               be computed from the definition of the variance. Letting µ Y = E(X ) =      253  gives
                                                                                           13
                       p
                           2
                                                       2
                                                                                                           2
                                                2
                                         2
                                                              2
                                  2
                                                                                    2
                                                                             2
                                                                                           2
                  2
                                                                                                   2
                                                                     2
                 σ = (1 − µ y ) + p(2 − µ y ) + p(3 − µ y ) + p(4 − µ y ) + p(5 − µ y ) + 2p(6 − µ Y ) =
                  Y
                       2
                                                        187356     28824
                                                     =         p =        .
                                                         169         169
               We deduce that
                                                             √        √
                                                        3660     169     169
                                          Corr[X, Y ] =                      ≈ 0.984.
                                                         169    28824    480
               Thus the random variables X and Y display a strong degree of positive correlation, as we would
               expect.
               We note that the covariance of X and Y occurs in various expressions. For example, if X and Y
               are not independent then
                                                    2               2        2                    2
                         Var(X + Y ) = E(X + Y ) − (E(X + Y )) = E(X ) + 2E(XY ) + E(Y )−
                             2
                                                        2
                  −{(E(X)) + 2E(X)E(Y ) + (E(Y )) } = Var(X) + Var(Y ) + 2(E(XY ) − E(X)E(Y )) =
                                              = Var(X) + Var(Y ) + 2Cov[X, Y ].
               More generally, we find (for a, b and c constant)
                                                                    2
                                                        2
                                 Var(aX + bY + c) = a Var(X] + b Var(Y ) + 2abCov[X, Y ].
               Note that if X and Y are in fact independent then Cov[X, Y ] = 0.
                   For several variables X i , i = 1, 2, . . . , n, we can define the symmetric (positive definite)
               covariance matrix whose elements are


                                                      V ij = Cov[X i , X j ],                             (7.12)

               and the symmetric (positive definite) correlation matrix ρ ij = Corr[X i , X j ].

               Example 7.4. A card is drawn at random from a normal 52-card pack and its identity
               noted. The card is replaced, the pack shuffled and the process repeated. Random
               variables W, X, Y, Z are defined as follows:

                   • W = 2 if the drawn card is a heart; W = 0 otherwise.

                   • X = 4 if the drawn card is an ace, king, or queen; X = 2 if the card is a
                     jack or ten; X = 0 otherwise.

                   • Y = 1 if the drawn card is red; Y = 0 otherwise.

                   • Z = 2 if the drawn card is black and an ace, king or queen; Z = 0 otherwise.


                                                              67
   62   63   64   65   66   67   68   69   70   71   72